Epilepsy drug market to remain relatively flat through 2019 as generic erosion is offset by the launch of new therapies, says DR report

Over the next decade, the epilepsy drug market will remain relatively flat, increasing from $2.8 billion in 2009 to $2.9 billion in 2019 in the USA, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and Japan, according to advisory firm Decision Resources.

The Pharmacor 2010 findings from the topic entitled Epilepsy forecast a decline in overall sales through 2014 due to generic erosion, specifically within the second-generation antiepileptic drug (AED) class, which will lose approximately $400 million by 2014. Generic erosion within the epilepsy market remains relatively conservative but several popular second-generation AEDs will contend with strong generic competition over the next several years. Nevertheless, the market will recover as a result of uptake of both currently-marketed and emerging higher-priced third-generation AEDs.

"Through 2019, the majority of AEDs will be generically available, creating negative pressure on market growth," said Decision Resources analyst Nadja Rozovsky. "However, emerging agents, combined with greater uptake of the already-available and mostly branded third-generation AEDs, will temper the impact of generic AEDs, and the market will recover by 2019," he added.