As global MS pipelines revealed, Gilenya maintains strongest appeal, says Nomura analyst

24 October 2011

Following the September 2010 US launch, Swiss drug major Novartis’ (NOVN: VX) first-in-class, once-daily oral multiple sclerosis drug Gilenya (fingolimod) has captured around a 5% share (first-line treatments) via patient switching from injectables (about 40% from Copaxone; glatiramer acetate from Teva) and market expansion, which is no longer supported by Copaxone or interferons, says Nomura European pharmaceuticals analyst Amit Roy in a client note issued on Monday.

While the market models $5 billion MS market growth to $15.4 billion (2011-16E), led by Biogen Idec’s (Nasdaq: BIIB) BG-12 (+$1.8 billion) and Gilenya (+1.7 billion), Dr Roy remains materially ahead of Gilenya consensus ($3.5 billion versus $2 billion) given what he considers its superior positive benefit risk profile vs pipeline and marketed drugs.

What type of patient will use BG-12?

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