Pipeline epilepsy agents will struggle to emulate past successes

Despite the upcoming launch of several new brands, independent market analyst Datamonitor expects the epilepsy market to recover slowly from the 2008-2009 patent cliff in the USA, reaching almost $5 billion by 2019, versus $3.5 billion in 2009.

The strongest growth will come from Japan, where Datamonitor expects the market to double in value to around $430 million by 2019, aided by uptake of second-generation antiepileptic drugs. This equates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1%. The five  major European markets will withstand the impact of Keppra's (levetiracetam, from Belgium's UCB) expiry, with a CAGR of 3.7% out to 2019, when the market value is forecast to be $1.5 billion.

In the USA, however, it will be 2016 before the market returns to pre-patent cliff values of $3 billion, with Lyrica (pregabalin, from Pfizer), Vimpat (lacosamide, from UCB) and pipeline compounds all contributing to the recovery. This will be followed by a slight decline to $2.9 billion in 2019; providing a CAGR of 2.7% over the forecast period.