Novel oral anticoagulants will continue to drive atrial fibrillation drug market growth

The atrial fibrillation drug market will experience continued growth through the rest of the decade, increasing from $3.4 billion in 2012 to $8.6 billion in 2020 in the USA, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Japan.

However, according to a new report from health care advisory firm Decision Resources, generic entry of Boehringer Ingelheim’s Pradaxa (dabigatran etexilate) and Bayer (BAYN: DE)/Janssen’s Xarelto (rivaroxaban) will result in contraction of the atrial fibrillation market in the latter part of the 2012 to 2022 forecast period, with the market contracting to $8.1 billion in 2022.

The Pharmacor advisory service, titled Atrial Fibrillation, finds that the novel oral anticoagulants developed for the prevention of stroke in atrial fibrillation patients will continue to drive market growth, accounting for around 70% market share in 2022.

Eliquis to become sector sales leader

Despite a slow start following its 2013 launch, Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY)/Pfizer’s (NYSE: PFE) Eliquis (apixaban) is expected to be the sales-leading anticoagulant and will garner more than $2.7 billion in 2022. The use of the new anticoagulants will result in a steep decline in sales of warfarin (Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Coumadin, Eisai’s Warfarin, generics) and other currently available vitamin K antagonists. The anticipated launch of Armetheon’s tecarfarin as an anticoagulant therapy for atrial fibrillation patients with mechanical heart valves in the USA will see vitamin K antagonists remain a notable presence in the atrial fibrillation drug market.

The report also reveals that ChanRx’s oral cardioversion agent vanoxerine will become the sales-leading antiarrhythmic drug during the forecast period, despite only launching in 2018. Vanoxerine’s high efficacy, combined with its strong safety profile, will ensure strong uptake both as a cardioversion agent and as a pill-in-the-pocket therapy.

“Despite initial poor uptake following its launch, we forecast that Eliquis will become the market leader owing to its superior clinical trial data. Eliquis remains the only agent to demonstrate increased efficacy and lower rates of major bleeding versus warfarin,” said Decision Resources analyst Eamonn O'Connor, adding: “Continued strong uptake of Bayer/Janssen’s Xarelto, due largely to its once-daily dosing, will see Xarelto become the second best-selling agent with peak-year sales in excess of $2 billion prior to its patent expiration in the USA in 2021.”