Non-insulin antidiabetics market set to soar to $8 billion by 2020

Non-insulin dependent (type 2) diabetes accounts for 90% of all diagnosed cases of diabetes. The leading non-insulin antidiabetic Actos (pioglitazone, from Takeda and Eli Lilly) will lose its patent exclusivity in August 2012, offering significant market opportunities for competing generics, according to a new from Global Information.

New generic antidiabetic competitor launches include the first once-weekly GLP-1 agonists and the oral SGLT-2 inhibitor class, to compete in an increasingly crowded treatment algorithm in type 2 diabetes, it notes.

Despite moderate efficacy, a benign safety profile and oral delivery will mean that DPP-IV inhibitors continue to dominate branded non-insulin antidiabetics, with the class forecast to be worth over $8 billion in 2020, led by the gold-standard Januvia (sitagliptin, from Merck & Co). The GLP-1 agonist class sees once-weekly product launch, but doubts about their efficacy will allow once-daily Victoza (liraglutide, from Novo Nordisk) to retain a leading position in the class and reach blockbuster status early in the forecast period.