Confirmation that Johnson & Johnson is interested in buying the Swiss group Actelion sent the target's shares up as much as 14% Friday morning, but a deal looks unlikely – at least at its current value, according to EP Vantage, the editorial arm of the Evaluate group. At 19.6 billion Swiss francs ($19.3 billion) Actelion’s market capitalization far outstrips the $7.3 billion net present value the sellside attributes to its products, as calculated by EvaluatePharma.
There are other factors that make the acquisition improbable. Perhaps most importantly, one driver of US companies' foreign acquisitions, the need to use offshore cash, could soon be removed with President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed repatriation holiday. Of course, a deal cannot be ruled out entirely, said EPV.
Meantime, Panmure Gordon analyst David Cox commented: “What J&J may be able to bring is a further depth of medical expertise that falls outside Actelion’s natural PAH territory….This could help accelerate the R&D programs in the other therapeutic areas.”
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