Dynamics of China's $47 billion pharmaceutical market have changed, says BMI

Intense promotional activities by drug makers and the rapid roll-out of health insurance coverage in China have boosted Business Monitor International’s short-term expenditure forecast for the country. Accordingly, BMI has increased its forecast US dollar 2009-14 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 13.8% to 16.4%, noting that the dynamics of China's $47 billion pharmaceutical market have changed.

The upcoming price controls on expensive foreign medicines, coupled with further government support for local firms, have led BMI to lower its long-term market forecast. It now expects combined sales of prescription drugs and over-the-counter (OTC) medicines in China to reach a value of $162 billion by 2019, down from its previous forecast of $175 billion.

In the Asia Pacific Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Business Environment Ratings (BERs) for first-quarter 2011, China has overtaken Singapore to become the region's fourth most attractive market. Although there was no change to China's Risks, the Country Rewards, which includes components such as population growth, urbanisation and pensionable population score, rose from 43 out of 100 to 50, resulting in the Rewards score rising from 58 to 60.