Drug-treated hepatitis C population to more than double by 2016

The hepatitis C virus population is already large, with 2 million diagnosed, chronically infected cases in the G7 markets alone, but research from data and analysis provider Decision Resources Group has shown that the drug-treated population in these countries is expected to dramatically increase.

Many of these patients in the USA, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Japan, including more than 270,000 who have clinically significant Metavir F4 fibrosis of the liver, have refused treatment or are ineligible for older therapies reliant on regular interferon-alpha injections. These people will soon be able to access hepatitis C-specific direct-acting antivirals, such as Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Daklinza (daclatasvir) and AbbVie’s ABT-450-based interferon-free combination. This will dramatically increase the size of the drug-dreated population from less than 130,000 in 2013, to more than 470,000 in 2016.

Seamus Levine-Wilkinson, an analyst at Decision Resources Group, said: “Unsurprisingly, surveyed and interviewed experts anticipate that they will treat most HCV patients with IFN-free therapies within one to five years of launch, irrespective of HCV genotype and liver disease. These responses stem from physicians’ recognition that a large number of highly effective, safe, and well-tolerated all-oral/IFN-free regimens will reach the market beginning with the late 2013 launch of sofosbuvir. After 2016, the drug-treated population will gradually decline to approximately 200,000 cases in 2028 as previously diagnosed ‘warehoused’ patients are treated and cured.”