Ukrainian pharma market recovering, but economy remains fragile and regulatory oversight is dysfunctional, says BMI

The pharmaceutical market the Ukraine is moving toward strong recovery in 2010, with Business Monitor International forecasting a 21.5% US dollar rebound to follow a 23.7% slide in a disastrous 2009 for Ukraine's economy.

BMI forecasts a 22.13% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the period 2009-2014. It believes these rosy forecasts will be driven by out of pocket spending, as the prospects for the implementation of even basic insurance covering pharmaceuticals look poor in the near term. In addition, Ukraine's economy remains fragile and subject to external shocks.

In April, Ukraine published a draft law on compulsory medical insurance and invited public consultation on the issue. The reform is long overdue and, in theory, the institution of an insurance-based system is a matter of political consensus. Such a system will need to overcome endemic corruption and will rely on collecting insurance contributions from salaries requiring legal salary declarations as well as transparent management of health care funds, says BMI.