Public pharma expenditure will grow well below that of the Spanish economy in the forthcoming years

Forecasts reveal growth of between 0.4% and 1% annually in the Spanish pharmacy market for the period between 2015 and 2019, according to IMS’ Market Prognosis report which is featured in issue 120 of trade group Farmaindustria’s Monthly Economic Bulletin. These figures are far from the general growth figures which have been forecast by diverse national and international organisms for the Spanish economy, for the next five years.

After several years of intense falls in the market, as well as in Spanish public pharmaceutical expenditure, 2014 saw the first signs of positive growth (although moderate) during the last five-years period. However, forecasts are not very optimistic with regards to the evolution of these parameters in the short and medium term. If the forecasts were to become a reality, Spain would enter the 2020 decade with an expenditure volume which would hardly exceed 9.70 billion euros ($10.93 billion), which would imply being positioned at similar levels to those of 2005, in current terms, says Farmaindustria.

The Bulletin highlights that both real data and analysts’ forecasts show that, once the statistical short term effects of the health care policy measures applied in Spain since 2010 have been absorbed, the change of trend of pharmaceutical expenditure towards stagnation will become a reality. For this reason, it is not feasible to foresee an expenditure evolution scenario which would get even close to the growth rates of the Spanish economy during the next few years.