Patent cliff will see slowdown in Swedish pharmaceuticals spending, warns BMI

Despite a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.61% in local currency terms and 3.77% in US dollars from 2004-2009, Business Monitor International’s outlook for Sweden's drug market is considerably less optimistic over the next five years.

Over 2009-2014, a CAGR of -0.95% is projected in local currencies (which translates into -0.84% in US dollars), largely as a result of the impending patent cliff and the consequent consumption of lower-value generic drugs in place of high-value patented drugs. By 2014, pharmaceutical expenditure in Sweden is expected to reach a value of 28.94 billion Swedish kronor ($3.79 billion), falling from 30.36 billion kronor posted in 2009.

While the Swedish pharmaceutical market is expected to return to positive territory over BMI’s longer, 10-year forecast period (posting a local currency CAGR of 1.45%), Sweden is ranked in sixth place in BMI’s Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings matrix for first-quarter 2011 out of the 10 Western European markets. Globally, Sweden is placed 15th, below Brazil and above Poland, out of the total of 83 countries surveyed.