Lilly/Amylin/Alkermes' Bydureon inferior to Novo Nordisk's diabetes drug Victoza

There was disappointing news yesterday for US drugmakers Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), Amylin (Nasdaq: AMLN) and Alkermes (Nasdaq ALKS), when they presented new data from the head-to-head DURATION study comparing their investigational type 2 diabetes drug Bydureon (exenatide, extended-release for injectable suspension, which showed the agent failed to reduce patients’ average blood glucose levels as much as Danish insulin giant Novo Nordisk's (NVO: N) already marketed Victoza (liraglutide).

Amylin shares fell 25% to $11.20 at 4 pm New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading, while Alkermes declined 11% to $12.56, the worst day for both stocks since October. Lilly was barley affected and Novo Nordisk closed up 1.7% at 678.50 Danish kroner, having risen as high as 703 kroner. Analysts at Credit Suisse have a net present value for Bydureon of $16.17/share or 70.4% of total NPV for Amylin and $1.88/share or 3.6% of total NPV for Eli Lilly.

Bydureon is a weekly version of Byetta, which is injected twice daily. Victoza, approved and launched in the USA last year (The Pharma Letter February 17, 2010), is taken once daily and generated $433 million in sales last year. The Danish firm expects turnover to reach at least $1 billion, and has even forecast a figure of $2.5 billion at peak.