Generics will cut into bipolar disorder market to $4.2 billion by 2024, report

The treatment market for bipolar disorder is set to decrease from $5.8 billion in 2014 to $4.2 billion by 2024, at a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2%, as generic erosion continues to deter the development of novel therapies, according to a new study.

Research and consulting firm GlobalData’s latest report states that this decline, which will occur across the eight major markets (8MM) of the USA, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan and Canada, is going to be particularly steep between 2015 and 2017. The key event will be Otsuka’s (TYO: 4768) Abilify (aripiprazole), which was the market-leading brand with 40% of sales across the 8MM in 2014, experiencing generic erosion in the US and five major European countries.

Thomas Parker, GlobalData’s senior analyst covering neurology and ophthalmology, says: “Broadly speaking, the bipolar disorder market is widely genericized, and the patent expiration of Abilify is just one of many over the forecast period which will contribute to market stagnation. In cost-conscious Western markets, discounted prices ensure that generic drugs are prescribed over branded equivalents. Opportunities for new and existing players are limited, as the uptake of novel pipeline products would be hindered by their premium price point. As a result, pharma companies have deprioritized bipolar disorder, meaning the late-stage pipeline is sparse.”