Five-year CAGR of 10.4% (in dollars) projected for Uzbekistan's pharmaceutical market by BMI

Business Monitor International's projection for Uzbekistan's pharmaceutical market remains largely unchanged this quarter, with its five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast at 10.37% in US dollar terms between 2009 and 2014, reaching a total value of 977.51 billion sum ($519 million) by the end of the forecast period.

Overall economic growth is expected to remain strong at between 7% and 8%. Industrial output is robust and the country's energy sector, while modest compared with Turkmenistan, will be providing growing revenues, as will transit fees from the new Trans-Eurasian pipeline. If Russia's economy sees a sustained pick up, income from remittances, down sharply during the economic crisis, will be another fillip for the economy, says BMI.

The pharmaceutical sector has been a priority for the government, at least according to its official pronouncements. Uzpharmsanoat, the state-controlled pharmaceutical holding, has attracted a number of joint-venture partners to develop manufacturing in the country. For foreign pharmaceutical players willing to entertain high levels of risk, Uzbekistan's market of 30 million, fast-growing economy and pent up demand make it one of the most attractive in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region. Still, the country remains the worst major market to do business in the region according to BMI's Business Environment Ratings, with the recent unrest in neighboring Kyrgyzstan underlining the dangers of poverty, corruption and ethnic tensions in the Ferghana valley and wider region.