B-MS' nivolumab to lead NSCLC market with sales of $1.75 billion by 2022, says GlobalData

US pharma major Bristol-Myers Squibb’s (NYSE: BMY) nivolumab will overtake proven blockbuster competitors to dominate the non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treatment market following an expected 2015 launch, says research and consulting firm GlobalData, according to whose latest analysis, nivolumab, a first-in-class immunotherapy, will become the overall NSCLC market sales leader by 2022, reaching revenue of $1.75 billion.

Covering the key markets of the USA, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Japan, as well as China and India, GlobalData’s new report expects B-MS’ promising new immunotherapy to eventually outsell current marketed frontrunners Swiss drug major Roche’s (ROG: SIX) Avastin (bevacizumab) and Tarceva (erlotinib) over the forecast period. Leading pipeline drugs such as afatinib, from Boehringer Ingelheim, and Eli Lilly’s necitumumab – with 2022 revenues forecast at $688 million and $384 million, respectively – will also be outperformed by nivolumab, states the report.

Brooke Baker, oncology health care analyst with GlobalData, says: “NSCLC is the second most common cancer in both men and women, and patients who are diagnosed with the condition have an extremely poor prognosis, with five-year survival rates limited to approximately 2% in US patients diagnosed at stage four of the disease.”