5.6% growth in US national health spending over the next decade projected

The US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ (CMS) Office of the Actuary has released projections of National Health Expenditures (NHE) and health insurance enrollment for the years 2023-2032.

The Office of the Actuary projects that over 2023-2032, average annual growth in NHE (5.6%) will outpace average annual growth in gross domestic product (GDP) (4.3%), resulting in an increase in the health spending share of GDP from 17.3% in 2022 to 19.7% in 2032.

The NHE estimates discussed in the report contain expected effects from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA), including anticipated effects associated with the law’s provisions regarding the redesign of Medicare’s Part D drug benefit, negotiations on certain high-cost drugs under Medicare Parts B and D, and expected enrollment and spending trends related to its temporary extension of enhanced subsidies for Marketplace plans.