NSCL cancer drug market set to grow 2.5% a year between 2010 and 2020, despite generic erosion

Despite the arrival of generic competition – and ensuing sales erosion for several key agents used in the management of the disease, the non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) drug market will increase 2.5% annually between 2010 and 2020, although growth will be generated exclusively in Europe and Japan, says advisory firm Decision Resources.

Most notably, sales of Genentech/OSI Pharmaceuticals/Roche/Chugai Pharmaceutical’s Tarceva (erlotinib) and Eli Lilly’s Alimta (pemetrexed), two branded treatments that dominated the non-small-cell lung cancer market in 2010, will weaken from 2015 to 2020, the report notes.

The findings from DR’s Pharmacor topic, titled Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer, also reveal that co-development of a drug and companion diagnostic based on a validated biomarker will help developers achieve success in this increasingly personalized market. Co-development of Pfizer’s Xalkori (crizotinib) and Abbott Molecular’s Vysis (CLL FISH Probe Kit, an FDA-cleared CLL test to aid in prognosis) reflect the power of a biomarker-driven strategy for NSCLC. High response rates that underlie premium-pricing and the possibility of lower reimbursement hurdles for the drug due to selection of anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK)-positive patients will turn a seemingly small and unprofitable patient subset into a lucrative and well-served market segment.