Nigeria's pharma market poised for CAGR of nearly 10% over five years to 2014

Nigeria remains third-last of the 17 key Middle East and Africa (MEA) markets tracked by Business Monitor International, only above Zimbabwe and Kenya. A sizeable counterfeiting industry, poor health care funding, corruption and a number of other issues will conspire to keep Nigeria in a similarly lowly position in the MEA matrix over the coming months, despite its dynamic growth prospects and positive economic outlook.

Having been valued at 90.04 billion naira ($600 million) in 2009, Nigeria's pharmaceutical market is forecast to post a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.97% over BMI's five-year forecast period to 2014, reaching 144.8 billion naira ($1.18 billion). Measured in US dollar terms, the rate of growth will be even stronger, at over 14.3%, as the naira gains strength.

Growth opportunities are also evident in the wider health care industry as the government increasingly recognizes the need to improve patients' access to and the quality of medical services. To this end, in the fourth quarter of 2009, the government began negotiations with India's Apollo Hospital Group to enter joint investment projects for establishing private hospitals in the country. The Nigerian Health Minister also stated that Apollo would be required to secure its own supply chain to ensure participation, although a nation-wide improvement of hospital provision is a long way off. According to Indian newspaper Hindu Business Line, around $250 million leaves Nigeria annually in the form of payment for treatment in foreign hospitals.