Kenya pharmaceutical industry growth forecast to pick up for 2009

The proprietary Drug Expenditure Forecast Model reveals that the Kenyan pharmaceutical market will return to a double-digit growth rate in 2009 (in local currency terms), after declining to single-digit growth the previous year.

During 2008, over-the-counter and prescription medicine sales reached 17.7 billion schillings ($229 million), up from 14.4 billion schillings. This represented a 9.6% growth in local currency terms and a 6.7% growth in US dollars, down from the 13.2% and 21.5% growth rates achieved during 2007. By 2014, the authors of the report, which has been added to Research and Markets offering, believe that the Kenyan drug market will reach a value of 33.48 billion schillings, equating to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.53% in local currency terms and 22.8% in US dollars. By 2019, they expect the pharmaceutical market to have reached a value of 57.2 billion schillings, a 2009-2019 CAGR of 26.35% in Kenyan shillings and a staggering 45.0% in US dollars.

In Business Environment Ratings for first-quarter 2010, despite Kenya's overall pharmaceutical rating improving marginally to reach a value of 33.8, compared with its fourth-quarter 2009 rating of 32.2, the East African country has dropped one place in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region to 16th place. Kenya is therefore above Zimbabwe, but below Algeria and Nigeria. Globally, Kenya is ranked in 70th position (also falling one place in first-quarter 2010).

Shortage of anti-retrovirals

In October 2009, it was revealed that Kenya is facing a nationwide shortage of anti-retrovirals (ARVs) because the High Court barred the Ministry of Health from procuring them. A consortium of drug suppliers challenged the Public Procurement Administrative Review Board's decision to force the Kenya Medical Supplies Agency (KEMSA) to accept tender documents from an Indian drugmaker, Hetero Drugs Limited, and start the tender process afresh. The KEMSA had rejected the Indian company's tender documents as it allegedly did not comply with procurement rules.

In October 2009, it was revealed that the Breast Cancer Association and other stakeholders were urging the government to implement a Cancer Control Bill to improve treatment in the country. The association's vice chairman said the Bill would force the government to allocate resources for an autonomous cancer unit that would deal with the treatment, diagnosis and research into cancer. The Bill would also enable the creation of an institute which would not have to rely on World Health Organization statistics and the Nairobi Council Registry, which only collects data from public hospitals.

Meanwhile, the acting director of KEMRI (the government body responsible for health research), said that it was operating on an annual budget of 4 billion schillings, against the required 9 billion schillings. He said that the budget deficit could be met by a mix of public and private partnerships, and not solely by an increase in government funding, the report notes.