HIV drug sales forecasts see existing products peaking in 2012 and halving by 2019, as fixed-dose combos take over; study

Half of all antiretroviral sales in 2019 will be attributed to current pipeline products, as fixed-dose combinations increase in dominance over the next decade, finds independent market analyst Datamonitor.

A rising patient population, increasing life expectancy and improved testing strategies will push up demand for products over the period. However, sales of existing products are still expected to shrink by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -6%. This is due to patent expiries and pressures to reduce healthcare spend post-economic downturn.

Nele Jensen, a health care analyst at Datamonitor, comments: 'Sales of existing drugs will peak at around $12 billion in 2012 before halving by 2019. Over the same period, pipeline drugs are expected to see a CAGR of 172% between the anticipated launch of the first of the pipeline drug, Tibotec Pharmaceuticals/Johnson & Johnson's rilpivirine, in 2011 and the end of the forecast period in 2019. We expect sales of current pipeline products to reach over $7 billion.'