BMI downgrades growth forecast for Pakistan pharma market in 2nd-qtr 2010

Pakistan's macroeconomic indicators have deteriorated significantly since first-quater 2010. The rupee has depreciated against the US dollar, gross domestic product (GDP) projections have been downgraded, inflation has increased and fiscal expenditure has contracted, notes Business Monitor International's Pakistan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report. Therefore, Pakistan's $1.61 billion pharmaceutical market is now expected to post a five-year compound annual growth rate of 8.95%, down from 9.39% forecast in the previous quarter.

BMI's Burden of Disease Database (BoDD) reveals that number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to communicable diseases such as tuberculosis and measles in Pakistan during 2009 was 19,369,492. This is significantly more than the number of DALYs lost to non-communicable diseases (15,255,144). However, as the country's economy grows and life expectancy increases, this situation will reverse.

The pharmaceutical pricing regime in Pakistan is typical of an emerging market and far below international standards. Both generic drugs and patented products are subject to price controls. The maximum retail price (MRP) of a medicine is determined using a formula that incorporates manufacturing costs and retail mark-ups. When pricing imported medicines, the cost of freight is also included.