Advent of generics will keep breast cancer drug market static over the next decade

The breast cancer drug market will remain largely static over the next decade, increasing from $10.2 billion in 2009 to $10.4 billion in 2019 in the USA, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and Japan, according to new research form advisory firm Decision Resources.

Significant declines in sales, owing to generic erosion of key agents and a substantial reduction in the prescribing of Roche/Genentech/Chugai’s Avastin (bevacizumab) due to its withdrawal from the US market will be offset by an annual increase in breast cancer incidence and by the uptake of premium-priced emerging agents. In 2019, combined sales of emerging breast cancer therapies will account for more than one-quarter of the overall market.

The findings from Decision Resources’ analysis of the breast cancer drug market also reveal that, despite oncologists’ awareness at the time of the survey that the US Food and Drug Administration’s Oncologic Drug Advisory Committee had recommended Avastin’s label in breast cancer be removed (The Pharma Letter December 17, 2010), the majority of surveyed US oncologists (63%) selected Avastin plus paclitaxel (Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Taxol, generics) as the most efficacious treatment for metastatic triple-negative breast cancer, when compared to other currently available therapies. Owing to Avastin’s dominance in metastatic triple-negative breast cancer, few physicians chose Celgene’s Abraxane (nanoparticle paclitaxel), paclitaxel or Taxotere as the most efficacious therapy for the indication.