The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has examined how much Medicare might spend if the agency began covering obesity medications.
In the CBO’s estimation, the policy could increase federal spending by $35.5 billion, on net, from 2026 to 2034. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60816
The report also includes information from other models, like the one in the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review ICER’s Final Evidence Report on treatments for obesity management. The ICER says its research indicated that Novo Nordisk’s (NOV: N) semaglutide used for weight loss (branded Wegovy) would achieve common thresholds for cost-effectiveness if priced between $7,500 – $9,800 per year. Even at a fair price, less than 1% of eligible patients could be treated before creating a significant budget impact problem.
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