Surge in drug approvals, R&D productivity and investor confidence to drive Pharma expansion through 2018, says Evaluate

According to the newly-released World Preview 2013 report from market intelligence firm Evaluate, the worst of the patent cliff is behind us. While the pharmaceutical industry is feeling the effects of last year’s decline in performance - with worldwide prescription drug sales down 1.6% - sales are forecast to start growing slowly in 2013 and then steadily increase, reaching $895 billion by 2018, according to Evaluate’s report, which was launched at the 2013 Drug Information Association (DIA) annual meeting in Boston, USA, and is available as a free download at www.evaluategroup.com/wp2013.

According to the World Preview 2013, the industry will benefit from improved investor confidence and R&D productivity. Of the $227 billion of global drug sales that will be at risk from generic erosion following patent expirations, only $110 billion is forecast to be lost over the next five years. The main reason for this is the growing contribution of biological products to global sales. By 2018, 50% of sales of the top 100 products are predicted to come from biological products which are expected to experience less sales erosion from biosimilar competition than traditional small molecules have from generic products.

“The fall in worldwide prescription drug sales in 2012 confirms our forecast from last year,” said Anthony Raeside, head of research for Evaluate, adding: “While patent expirations still threaten to stifle growth, the market is expected to grow sluggishly in 2013 with a sustained recovery occurring in 2014.”