New entrants from Roche and Novartis will drive breast cancer market

Through 2021, the uptake of three new market entrants, Roche (ROG: SIX)/Genentech’s Perjeta (pertuzumab) and trastuzumab-DM1 (T-DM1), and Novartis’ (NOVN: VX) Afinitor (everolimus) will drive growth in the breast cancer market, according to health care advisory firm Decision Resources.

Having secured regulatory approval in both Europe and the USA for later-line hormone-receptor positive breast cancer in July, Decision Resources estimate that Afinitor’s major-market peak-year sales in this setting will exceed $1 billion. Furthermore, following the US Food and Drug Administration’s approval of Perjeta in combination with trastuzumab and docetaxel (Sanofi’s Taxotere, generics) for first-line advanced HER2-positive breast cancer in June 2012, ongoing clinical development of the drug will enable it to secure blockbuster sales by 2021. T-DM1 has demonstrated impressive results in later-line treatment of HER2-positive breast cancer and Decision Resources anticipates the agent will be approved in this setting in 2013, and will move into earlier settings through 2021.

The Pharmacor Breast Cancer advisory service also finds that, in 2011, Roche/Genentech/Chugai’s Herceptin (trastuzumab) earned $3.4 billion across the major markets, making it the highest-selling breast cancer drug in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan. However, during the ten-year forecast, the entry of biosimilar trastuzumab will erode sales of Herceptin.