Moderna tumbles as it cuts COVID-19 vaccine sales forecast

US mRNA-based biotech Moderna (Nasdaq: MRNA) saw its share plunge.18% to $283.26 by late morning trading, as it reported third-quarter 2021 financials, showing a huge profit on strong sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, but downgraded its sales forecast due to expected delays in shipping and temporary issues related to manufacturing capacity.

Total revenue was $5.0 billion for the three months ended September 30, 2021, compared to $157 million for the same period in 2020. Total revenue was $11.3 billion for the nine months ended September 30, 2021, compared to $232 million for the same period in 2020. Total revenue increased in 2021 as a result of commercial sales of Spikevax, and to a lesser extent, grant revenue. Product sales for the three and nine months $4.8 billion and $10.7 billion, respectively, up from sales of 208 million and 510 million doses of Spikevax for the like 2020 periods, respectively.

However, Spikevax third-quarter revenues were well below estimates of $6.0-$5.7 billion from SVB Leerink Research analysts, who says Moderna’s shares remain substantially overvalued, as the early bolus phase of the COVID vaccine market transitions to sharp decline to a much smaller, much more competitive chronic endemic market – a pattern familiar to those who followed the boom/bust cycle in the HCV market.